ROI & breakeven calculator
Short answer
On a binary contract, the price you pay is the hit rate you need. Everything above that line is edge; fees eat into it every round trip. This calculator projects both a single trade and a run of them.
Profit if right
$375.00
ROI per winning trade
150.0%
Breakeven hit rate
40.0%
Expected over 100 trades
$6000.00
Why breakeven hit rate is the number to memorise
Traders love talking about return per trade and ignore how often they need to be right to get it. A 20¢ lottery contract pays 5× and looks irresistible — until you notice it needs a 20% hit rate, and your actual rate on longshots is 12%. The favourite-longshot bias lives in that gap.
Fees compound faster than you think
Round-trip costs apply per trade, not per profitable trade. Someone taking 20 five-minute binaries a day at 1% cost pays 20% of a stake's worth of friction daily. That is a real strategy filter: either raise your edge or lower your frequency.
FAQ
+ What win rate do I need to break even?
On a binary contract your breakeven hit rate equals the price you pay. Buy at 60¢ and you must be right 60% of the time just to stay level, before fees.
+ Do fees matter on prediction markets?
Yes, especially on short-dated contracts you trade many times a day. A 1% round-trip cost on a 5% edge removes a fifth of your expectancy.
+ How do I calculate ROI on a contract?
ROI = profit ÷ stake. Buying 100 contracts at 40¢ for $40 and getting $100 back is $60 profit on $40 risked, a 150% return on that trade.